Earthquake Scenarios

Cascadia Subduction Zone Earthquake Scenario

This scenario characterizes the effects of a major subduction earthquake on communities along the Cascadia Subduction Zone, stretching from the Brooks Peninsula on Vancouver Island to Cape Mendocino in northern California.

Shallow Earthquakes

The shallow earthquakes scenario discusses the effects of earthquakes that occur within the earth’s crust.

Deep Earthquakes

Deep earthquakes pose a serious risk to Cascadia. In Puget Sound, for example, there is an 84% chance of a magnitude 6.5 or greater deep earthquake striking within 50 years. Beneath northwestern California, northwestern Oregon and southwestern British Columbia the probability of a similar sized earthquake over 50 years is somewhat lower, but still a major component of the earthquake hazard in each area.
This report discusses characteristics typical with earthquakes in the Cascadia region, potential hazards they cause, lessons from recent earthquakes, potential earthquakes and lessons for the future.

Using the CREW Scenario: 3 Table Top Exercises

In 2005, CREW published Cascadia Subduction Zone Earthquakes: A magnitude 9.0 earthquake scenario, a report that summarized what might happen to northwestern California, western Oregon and Washington, and southwestern British Columbia if we make no further preparations for a large earthquake. Three organizations used that scenario as a basis for their tabletop emergency exercises in 2005-06. Some of the lessons observed in the Blue Cascades III, Pacific Peril 2006 and the Cannon Beach exercises are summarized in this report.

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